2023 HPAI H5N1 outbreak in South Africa

The outbreak

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5 avian influenza (HPAI) were reported to the WOAH in May 2023 in both wild birds and domestic poultry . It follows outbreaks of HPAI H5N8 in 2017 and HPAI H5N1 in 2021. This website provides up to date information as is available through both WOAH, public and industry sources.

Definitions
Term Definition
Outbreak holding This refers to a single outbreak holding that may have one or more epidemiologic units affected. The holding contains one or more epidemiologic units that are connected either through proximity or shared management factors. Generally outbreaks reported to the WOAH are at this level.
Epidemiologic unit (epi-unit) This relates to distinct production types. They may be different in output (e.g. rearers versus layers) or different in management (e.g. free-range versus caged). NOTE:All aggregation in this website is at the epidemiologic unit level.
Commercial layers These are caged layer hens
Small-holder These are domestic poultry producers but which have less than 10 000 birds on their holdings.
Disclaimer
The data presented is to provide an update as close to real-time as possible to track these outbreaks. Data is sourced from official, public and industry sources, some of which are verbal. All official data for the outbreak is reported to WOAH by the South African government, and the links above provide access to those reports. While every effort is made to provide accurate information, data is likely to change at short notice and should be read in this context.
Data sources
  • WOAH
  • Industry and private sources
There is a poultry distribution layer in the spatial anlaysis section. This is based on data published online as part of a project that mapped livestock distributions globally. It does seem as if some provinces could not be as accurately determined as others however this data is what is available on a country level. The reference for this layer is:

Chickens distribution - Gridded Livestock of the World v 2.01 Robinson TP, Wint GRW, Conchedda G, Van Boeckel TP, Ercoli V, Palamara E, Cinardi G, D’Aietti L, Hay SI, and Gilbert M. (2014) Mapping the Global Distribution of Livestock. PLoS ONE 9(5):e96084.

The weblink to the article can be found here
Summary overview
Commercial impact

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Run analysis

Epidemic curves allow the analysis of affected epi-units in time - i.e. a temporal analysis of data. While the output of an epidemic curve is relatively straightforward, the benefit of such analysis allows the determination of:
  • Establishing the probability of the detection of the actual first case in the outbreak
  • Establishing the rate of progression and temporal trends of the outbreak
  • Identifying the secondary/progressive spread of infection
  • Establishing the impact of control measures

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Click on an affected area for more information

Spatial analysis of affected epi-units allows the determination of how an outbreak spreads and the impact it has on specific areas. Data are aggregated to Municipality area.

In the map there are two outputs that assist in spatial analysis:
  • The number of affected epi-units reported per municipality (density of outbreak)
  • The week of the outbreak (starting at week 1) that any affected municipality was first affected, which shows how spread has taken place
The LAYERS button on the top right of the map allows layers to be toggled on and off. The Municipal and Provincial boundaries have also been included to assist analysis. Legends for the layers are shown below the map.